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"The US economy is rapidly deteriorating," says Mr. Grannis. "The odds of a recession are now very high, perhaps by the end of the year." There are already some signs that important pillars are weakening. Consumer confidence has fallen for the past two months. The housing sector, which has been buoyant, is starting to sink. Corporate profits are failing. Some analysts are especially concerned over the sharp fall of commodity prices. They believe it represents the threat of deflation, it could cause a global slowdown. "The Fed will have to act forcefully to arrest the deflationary forces," says Robert Lamorte, chairman of Behavioral Economics, a consulting firm in San Diego.
But others counter that the central bank doesn’t need to intervene. They argue the Fed should wait to see real data before acting. "The fundamentals are better than the stock market reflects", says Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Nations-Banc Montgomery Security. Indeed, President Clinton tried to do his part to calm the market during his trip to Moscow, citing the strong job market and balanced budget. "We believe our fundamental economic policy is sound," he said. His comments echoed statements by Peter Rubin in Washington.
Some numbers do continue to reflect a strong economy. On Sep. 1, the Conference Board released its index of leading indicators. The index rose 0. 4 percent, prompting the business organization to predict that the nation’s output should increase at a moderate pace for the rest of 1998. The group sees little risk of recession in the near term.
But what bas changed is the global economy. Japan and the rest of Asia are in recession. The woes are spreading to Latin America.
"I’m now convinced we are going to have a global economic recession," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Norwest Corp, a Minneapolis-based bank. But, he added, it’s not certain the US will slide into a period of negative growth. He rates the risk of recession at only i0 to 15 percent. "We will be responding to the world economic situation rather than leading it," he says. Still, Fed watchers don’t think the central bank will act to try to save the world. "It’s inconceivable the Fed could make much difference in Asia, Russia, or Latin America," says Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor.
After the last stock market crash, in 1987, the Federal Reserve acted quickly to provide liquidity to the markets and to lower interest rates. But the economy is in better shape this time. The banking sector is stronger and the financial markets have been able to respond to the enormous trading volume. "It is not the Fed’s job to manage the stock market," says Mr. Kretzmen But the Fed will keep a close watch on Wall Street. If the market were to shave another 1,500 points off the Dow by the end of September, "then the Fed would think about lowering interest rates," says Mr. Gramley. In his view, the Fed’s main concern will be the impact of a sliding market on consumer confidence. Since 40 percent of the nation bas investments in the stock market, any prolonged slide might make individuals fed less wealthy.
They would cut back on vacations and "splurge" purchases. He expects the central bank to watch the next consumer confidence surveys and housing statistics closely. (550)
What is the Fed’s main concern according to Mr. Gramley