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某电子商务公司要从A地向B地的用户发送一批价值90000元的货物。从A地到B地有水、陆两条路线。走陆路时比较安全,其运输成本为10000元:走水路时一般情况下的运输成本只要7000元,不过一旦遇到暴风雨天气,则会造成相当于这批货物总价值10%的损失。根据历年情况,这期间出现暴风雨天气的概率为1/4,那么该电子商务公司(70)。
D.可以随机选择路线

A.应选择走水路
B.应选择走陆路
C.难以选择路线

【参考答案】

A
解析:这是一个不确定性决策问题,其决策树如下图所示。

由于该问题本身带有不确定因素,因此实际的运输成本不能预先确定。不过,对掌握一定概率分布的不确定性问题,该电子商务公司可以通过计算数学期望值进行比较决策,而不是盲目碰运气或一味害怕、躲避风险。根据上述决策树,走水路时,......

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